Xcel emissions cuts put Boulder near 2027 goal, but 2030 path remains undefined

Xcel Energy’s systemwide emissions fell from 14.5 million short tons in 2024 to 13.5 million in 2025, putting the utility within reach of Boulder’s 11.5-million-ton 2027 milestone. But the city’s tougher 2030 target remains largely unplanned, Boulder staff told the City Council at an Aug. 27 study session.

The city’s 2030 franchise target is 6.9 million short tons — nearly a 50% reduction from 2025 levels. The study-session packet identifies new renewable generation, electrification, distributed energy resources and possible reductions in future gas-system investments as parts of that path. It does not assign emissions reductions to those measures or provide a project-by-project plan for closing the gap.

The packet also contains no customer-bill estimates for grid projects planned or underway in Boulder, including undergrounding on 75th Street, Highway 36 and Highway 93; upgrades at the Sunshine and NCAR substations; and the two-phase rebuild of the century-old 9216 transmission line.

Reliability projects advance

The 75th Street undergrounding project is under construction between the city’s Water Resource Recovery Facility south of Jay Road and Lookout Road. Staff says it is intended to reduce outage and wildfire risk for Heatherwood, Country Club, city critical infrastructure and nearby communities.

The Highway 36 project is in permitting and final design with the Colorado Department of Transportation, with construction targeted to begin before the end of 2026. It would place about 5.5 miles of line underground from approximately Jay Road to Neva Road and along Neva Road. Staff describes the line as a high wildfire risk and says it has been included in all public-safety power shutoff events to date, producing extended outages in north Boulder, Niwot and Gunbarrel.

The Highway 93 project is also in permitting and final design with Boulder Open Space, Boulder County and CDOT. Its proposed route runs from east of the Eldorado Substation along Eldorado Springs Drive and Marshall Road, then south toward Golden. The team is evaluating Thomas Lane, though floodplain issues could make that segment infeasible. Staff says relatively few Boulder customers are served by the line.

Phase one of the 9216 rebuild, from Boulder Hydro to the Sunshine Canyon connection, is underway. Phase two is expected to begin construction in 2027, but the packet does not give a completion date. The line is more than a century old and runs through high-wildfire-risk areas to the Sunshine and Boulder Terminal substations.

An Xcel transmission-project filing lists three 9216 work orders totaling about $20.4 million. The filing describes a teardown and rebuild, including a short underground section outside Boulder Terminal, but does not establish that the costs will be charged specifically to Boulder customers. Some transmission and wildfire-mitigation investments are recovered through systemwide mechanisms, including the Transmission Cost Adjustment.

Under Boulder’s Xcel partnership, Xcel committed $33 million to power-line undergrounding, with about half planned in the first five years. A separate partnership overview says 1% of gross electric revenue from Boulder — estimated at about $1.1 million annually — is dedicated to city-directed undergrounding. It estimates that $15.5 million had been spent on overhead-to-underground conversions through 2025. Those figures do not show the cost of the three projects now in design or construction or their effect on individual bills.

The Colorado Public Utilities Commission approved a separate Xcel electric-revenue increase of about $157 million in August. The commission estimated that it would raise a typical residential bill by 4.77%, or about $5 per month, beginning Aug. 29. The decision does not attribute that increase to Boulder’s undergrounding, substation or 9216 work, so it is not a project-specific estimate.

2027 milestone has a clearer path than 2030 target

Staff considers the 2027 milestone achievable based on early-2026 emissions data and renewable resources expected to come online. A detailed Xcel 2027 emissions forecast was not completed in time for the council memo, however, and the packet says Xcel was expected to present its forecast to the council.

One cited resource is the 335-megawatt Arroyo solar project in Pueblo, which was expected to begin operating later in 2026. The packet does not quantify its contribution to Boulder’s franchise milestones.

The longer-term outlook is less certain. Electricity demand is growing while some replacement generation has been delayed or failed. Staff says those conditions could leave Xcel short of the resources needed to meet statewide demand in 2027 and part of 2028, and the packet warns that reliability problems could lead to load shedding, or rolling brownouts.

Xcel’s clean-energy-plan materials say Comanche 3 is to retire by Jan. 1, 2031, ending the company’s use of coal in Colorado. A later resource-plan proposal describes operating the plant through 2040 at a reduced capacity factor and adding about 600 megawatts of natural-gas resources for reliability. That proposal is not an approved retirement schedule and does not establish that an extension has been authorized.

Affordability and gas planning remain unresolved

Boulder staff identified affordability as a concern for lower-income households and customers who cannot afford the upfront cost of electrification. The packet provides no forecast for household bills resulting from the grid work, electrification or declining gas use.

Boulder was selected in 2025 as one of five gas-planning communities under House Bill 24-1370. The city and Xcel are reviewing the gas system for opportunities to avoid future investments and permanently retire portions of it. Staff says reducing gas-system spending as sales decline will be important; otherwise, customers who cannot electrify could face higher costs as fixed expenses are spread across fewer customers.

The partnership analysis models an 83.3% reduction in electricity emissions by 2030 against a 2018 baseline and assumes a 2030 electricity emissions factor of 0.1258 metric tons per megawatt-hour. Those are model results and assumptions, not proof that the 6.9-million-ton systemwide milestone will be met.

The Aug. 27 session was discussion-only; it produced no vote, appropriation or binding change in Xcel policy. The city plans a Power Reliability and Resilience Council/Community Forum on Oct. 8 and expects to continue working with Xcel on the unresolved emissions, reliability and affordability questions.